The West's Inflection Point in the Caucasus: Untying the Georgian Knot
By John DiPirro and Laura Linderman
Executive Summary
Since the summer of 2019, Georgia has cycled through periods of crisis and partial recovery, with the increasingly kleptocratic and authoritarian Georgian Dream (GD) government developing sophisticated methods to control public discourse and opinion. The fundamental question that Western policymakers can no longer avoid is: What is more important—a democratic Georgia or a cooperative, friendly Georgia? For years, these aspirations were aligned, but today they have diverged into mutually exclusive policy pathways, each carrying profound implications for regional stability and the credibility of Western engagement.
While many Western analysts point to Georgian Dream and its founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, as the primary drivers of democratic decline, this view oversimplifies the situation. A fuller understanding must also consider the opposition's failure to offer credible alternatives, the legacy of Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) party, and inconsistent Western engagement, all contributing to instability and strategic ambiguity.
In recent discussions with regional experts, civil society leaders and opposition figures, a common critique emerged: the absence of a coherent, responsive, and consistently updated Western policy toward Georgia. Shifting Western priorities have undermined long-term strategic alignment, especially given evolving global dynamics and the growing influence of powers like Russia and China. Given global shifts—including a more transactional U.S. foreign policy under the Trump Administration and Europe's growing focus on defense infrastructure—will the West remain committed to Georgia, or has "Georgia fatigue" taken hold?
This analysis examines the history and impact of Western support for Georgia, particularly in economic development, energy cooperation, and democratic reform. While Georgians are ultimately responsible for their national trajectory, the West must reckon with its strategic missteps that have shaped Georgia's current geopolitical position. Western policymakers must recalibrate their approach for an evolving international order and clearly articulate their desired relationship with Georgia. This recalibration requires acknowledging past errors and choosing whether to remedy them or pursue a pragmatic reset in relations.
Introduction
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia experienced a chaotic and traumatic transition marked by internal conflict, institutional breakdown, and territorial fragmentation. From 1991 to 1993, the newly independent country endured a civil war in Tbilisi and separatist wars in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, resulting in mass displacement and a loss of state authority. Eduard Shevardnadze’s presidency, beginning in 1992, brought a degree of stabilization but failed to address endemic corruption, systemic poverty, and unresolved territorial conflicts. As state institutions weakened, democratic reforms reversed, culminating in rigged parliamentary elections in November 2003. These elections catalyzed the Rose Revolution, a peaceful protest movement that ousted Shevardnadze and ushered in a new era under Mikheil Saakashvili.
From 2003 to 2012, the Saakashvili administration implemented sweeping reforms to modernize the state and align Georgia closer with the West. Backed by the U.S., the government launched an aggressive anti-corruption campaign and pursued neoliberal economic policies that dramatically improved Georgia’s international economic standing. However, Saakashvili’s tenure was also characterized by growing authoritarian tendencies, including suppression of dissent, manipulation of the judiciary, and human rights abuses, most notably exposed by the 2012 prison torture scandal. The 2008 war with Russia, following an ill-fated Georgian military response to escalating tensions in South Ossetia, proved decisive for Georgia's trajectory. Russia’s invasion, recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, and continued military presence not only dealt a severe blow to Georgia’s territorial integrity, but also revealed the limits of Western support.
In 2012, power peacefully transitioned to the Georgian Dream (GD) party, marking a significant democratic milestone. Initially welcomed with caution by Western partners, GD pledged to normalize relations with Russia while continuing Georgia’s European path. Subsequently, relations with the West frayed, particularly after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. GD’s refusal to align fully with Western sanctions and security postures, citing national pragmatism, strained Western relations. Domestically, the party began consolidating power, undermining democratic checks and balances and increasingly targeting civil society and independent media. These trends culminated in the controversial “foreign agent” law and a wider authoritarian drift, leading to suspended EU accession talks in 2024. Georgia now stands at a crossroads, torn between its European aspirations and its ruling party’s illiberal tendencies.
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