Central Asian Stability: Key Insights from Webinar
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The Central Asia - Caucasus Institute at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) recently hosted a webinar titled "Is Central Asia Stable?" The discussion explored regional stability in Central Asia.
The panel featured Dr. Svante Cornell, Director of AFPC's Central Asia-Caucasus Institute; Dr. Nargis Kassenova, Director of the Program on Central Asia at the Davis Center; and Dr. Jacob Zenn, Adjunct Associate Professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University. The panel was moderated by Ms. Laura Linderman, Director of Programs, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, AFPC.
Watch the full discussion below or on YouTube.
2022 Unrest
As Dr. Cornell explained, the episodes of violence in Central Asia during 2022 served as a reminder that the region remained vulnerable to internal and external forces that could have devastating effects. As detailed in his paper, these incidents included the January riots in Kazakhstan that spread from the west to Almaty; Tajikistan's May crackdown in Khorog, the capital of the Gorno-Badakshan autonomous region; July protests in Uzbekistan's Karakalpakstan region; and the September flare-up of border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Similar levels of violence had not been seen in Central Asia since 2022, raising the question of whether these instances were isolated remnants of COVID-induced unrest or indicators of larger regional instability. Despite these examples, Dr. Cornell noted that other forms of violence had not been apparent in Central Asia, such as large interstate conflicts, foreign-sponsored separatism, military coups, and Islamic militancy.
External Influences
Dr. Cornell discussed the negative effects of Russia's malign influence in fomenting instability in Central Asia. Dr. Kassenova contrasted this with China's role as a stabilizing force in the region, noting that China acted more predictably and with a longer strategic horizon than Russia. Due to its geographic position, China had a self-interest in promoting security cooperation, as Central Asia bordered Xinjiang, and in fostering regional connectivity to facilitate trade. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's endorsement of regional sovereignty became even more important. At the same time, anti-China sentiment among Central Asian populations limited China's reach in regional politics. Dr. Kassenova also noted that Central Asia found itself caught between U.S.-China rivalry, attempting to benefit from partnerships with both states while maintaining non-aligned status. Dr. Zenn asserted that the greatest threats from armed groups stemmed from ISIS Khorasan and Syria, although these threats remained moderate.
Economic and Institutional Vulnerabilities
Dr. Cornell highlighted institutional factors that created regional instability, including how security forces had contributed to episodes of violence. He also discussed the persistent nature of Soviet-era institutions, which created obstacles for reform attempts. These reforms—most notably in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—sought to make state institutions more effective and accountable to the population, offering genuine hope for improvement. Dr. Kassenova highlighted a gap between reform visions and successful implementation, while noting regional cooperation between Tashkent and Astana and expressing hope for further institutionalization and identity-building to solidify regional stability.
Based on the AFPC webinar featuring Laura Linderman, Director of Programs at Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, AFPC; Nargis Kassenova, Director of the Program on Central Asia at the Davis Center, Harvard University; Jacob Zenn, Adjunct associate professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University; and Svante Cornell, Director of Research and Publications at AFPC's Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.